Amazing! I thought I’d apply meta-analysis to filling out my brackets at the start of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament this year. I spent an entire afternoon studying at least two dozen systems with varying degrees and types of sophistication involved in them. There were those steeped in deep statistics. Others had other mathematical twists. Some were “qualitative.” Others were simply the reflections of regional or national basketball “experts.” One, of course, was that of our amiable President. I put it all together as one would with a crude sort of meta-analysis.
And, of course, they were all equally wrong, as was my distilled version of them. That’s the beauty of March Madness.
Really, Michigan State, going down to Middle Tennessee. How does one deal with that?
Well, I say let’s have a do-ever!
I admit to looking at fivethirtyeight this morning. But, I don’t know why. It’s like listening to pundits on the presidential race. What good does it do you?
So, I’m largely now operating on feel, relying mostly on what my eyeballs saw in many of the big games in the first two rounds and games I saw during the season. Here are my picks for the Sweet Sixteen and beyond to the championship. What are yours?
Sweet Sixteen: Kansas beats Maryland. Miami beats Villanova (my nervously chosen upset). Oregon beats Duke (though that damned Duke has a way, don’t they?). Oklahoma beats A&M (The Okies would never blow a double digit lead in the last minute.). UNC beats Indiana. Wisconsin beats Notre Dame (50-50. Yikes!). Virginia beats Iowa State. And Gonzaga beats Syracuse.
Elite Eight: Kansas beats Miami. Oklahoma beats Oregon. UNC beats Wisconsin. Virginia beats Gonzaga.
Final Four Semis: Kansas beats Oklahoma (what a series this has been all year). UNC beats Virginia.
Final: Kansas beats UNC. (Texas beat UNC but lost twice to Kansas. That’s my test.)
There you go.